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Terrorists' Target Selection
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The results of Graph 2 are then used in Graph 3. Graph 2 Figure 8 represents an influence diagram from the perspective of administration of industrial facility subjected to terrorist threat. It allows one to assess expected disutilities related to various countermeasures made by the administration of the facility involved. The graph permits estimation of expected disutilities to facility administration in case of various countermeasures adopted by the facility administration, to rank countermeasures.
Graph 3 Figure 9 represents an influence diagram from the perspective of local community authorities. Graph 2 and Graph 3 permit assessment of risk reduction benefits of different countermeasures and their costs. The structure of the influence diagrams and probabilistic dependences between the variables should be developed by the joint efforts of specialists representing a broad spectrum of disciplines these include specialists in terrorist threat assessment, reliability theory, social sciences, loss estimation , each providing insights in their relevant area of expertise.
The model permits identification of effects of different factors and parameter values on the likelihood of success of different attack scenarios and on the expected utilities to different sides involved.
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The model described above can be used in dynamic fashion via discrete time steps. At each step, each player updates his beliefs, objectives, and decisions based on his previous step. To address the dynamics of security problem, one needs to model moves and countermoves of all three sides involved, changes in the structure of terrorist organizations and systems of protection, and lessons learned by all parties from previous attacks.
The complexity of modern engineering systems and their interdependence with other systems make them vulnerable to attacks of technological and intelligent terrorism. This complexity stems largely from the vast functional and spatial dependencies and nonlinear interactions between the components of CES as well as from interdependencies that exist among the CESs which enable failures to cascade within one system and pass from one system to another. Different historical, economic, political, social, as well as cultural traditions have formed different approaches to ensuring safety of complex engineering systems.
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Contemporary CESs, i. Their significant spatial extension makes their functioning dependent on many factors and events in different parts of the world. It is impossible to solve this problem without joining efforts of experts in different fields and taking into account technical, social, psychological, and cultural-historical aspects. This is being done in the assumption that a bounded set of credible design-basis impacts and subsequent failure scenarios could be determined for the CES, thus allowing one to create a system of protection barriers and safeguards that could secure the CES from the identified impacts with required substantially and high probability.
This bounded set of impacts referred to as design-basis impacts includes normal operation events as well as abnormal events component failures, human errors, extreme environmental loads, attacks of technological terrorism on CES that are expected to occur or might occur at least once during the lifetime of the CES.
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The currently available approach to ensuring security of complex engineering systems is based on the so-called protection approach that provides for the development of a set of protection barriers against the list of terrorist attack scenarios that were identified in advance. Within this approach, attacks of technological terrorism should be included into the list of design-basis events.
To protect CESs from these scenarios of terrorist attacks, the following types of protection barriers should be developed see Figure 11 : Rigid protection barrier protection barrier that requires a powerful impact to be broken.
Natural protection barrier involves the use of passive natural phenomena and processes aimed at limiting the scales of the accident. Application of this protection approach allows one to reduce risks of design-basis scenarios of technological terrorism compare FN curves 1 and 2; Figure FN curves before and after realization of protection and resilience measures. In currently applied protection-based approach, a number of low-probability impacts of extreme intensity are neglected as being practically incredible.
Other impacts such as attacks of intelligent terrorism are not identified and, consequently, not analyzed. Such impacts are classified as beyond design-basis impacts. Thus, the issue of protection of CES from beyond design-basis impacts has not been addressed in a proper manner. These impacts however can cause large-scale disasters of extreme severity and induce tremendous property losses and a great number of victims. Complex engineering systems are becoming global networks.
The protection-based approach is focused on developing safety barriers for countering the identified scenarios of terrorist attacks that were included in the list of design-basis events. This approach however has the weakness of neglecting the possibility of beyond design-basis events. To overcome this weakness, a new comprehensive strategy is needed. The current accident models and risk assessment techniques such as fault and event tree analysis are not adequate to account for the complexity of modern engineering systems.
Terrorists Target Selection by Drake & C.
Due to rapid technological and societal developments of the recent decades, modern engineering systems are becoming steadily more complex. As a result, it is impossible to describe the performance of CESs in every detail. In other words for complex engineering systems, it is practically impossible to define a bounded set of design-basis impacts that are expected to occur or might occur at least once during the lifetime of the CES. This problem can be solved by including the concept of resilience in the processes of designing and ensuring the safety and security of CESs [ 26 , 27 ].
The proposed approach should not be considered as a substitute but rather a supplement to the traditional one. This comprehensive approach will be based on such concepts as resilience to provide more adequate explanations of accidents as well as identify ways to reduce risks caused by beyond design-basis impacts. This is determined by the degree to which the CES is capable of organizing itself to increase its capacity, of learning from past disasters for better future protection, and to improve risk reduction measures.
Measures to increase CES resilience. As previously stated, due to the complexity of modern engineering systems and their potentially large-scale catastrophes, in order to ensure security of such systems, one needs to move beyond traditional design-basis risk management framework.
That means that if the beyond design-basis accidents are to be considered, the scope of the analysis should be widened. Security-related efforts should be focused not only on the development of protection barriers and safeguards from predetermined postulated set of design-basis attacks of technological terrorism but also on additional set of measures aimed at increasing complex engineering system resilience that would prevent catastrophic failure and long-term dysfunctioning of CESs in case of beyond design-basis attacks. Application of such comprehensive protection and resilience focused approach allows one to reduce risks of beyond design-basis scenarios of intelligent terrorism compare FN curves 2 and 3; Figure This work was financially supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research grant no.
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